S5/10Economic
When the Davidson Window Meets the ‘Xi Window’
The Davidson Window measures China’s military capability to invade Taiwan. Arguably more important is Xi Jinping’s confidence in his military.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 25% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days