Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% probability Chain: Increased investor confidence in South Korean and Taiwanese tech markets leads to further capital inflows into these markets. This triggers a competitive race for talent and investment, potentially leading to increased government support for domestic tech companies. India's market cap continues to shrink as investors shift towards the more established Asian economies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% probability Chain: The current trend of capital flow towards South Korea and Taiwan continues with no significant shifts in investor sentiment. The Indian mark (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% probability Chain: Increased investor confidence in South Korean and Taiwanese tech markets leads to further capital inflows into these markets. This triggers a competitive race for talent and investment, potentially leading to increased government support for domestic tech companies. India's market cap continues to shrink as investors shift towards the more established Asian economies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% probability Chain: The current trend of capital flow towards South Korea and Taiwan continues with no significant shifts in investor sentiment. The Indian mark (48% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% probability Chain: Increased investor confidence in South Korean and Taiwanese tech markets leads to further capital inflows into these markets. This triggers a competitive race for talent and investment, potentially leading to increased government support for domestic tech companies. India's market cap continues to shrink as investors shift towards the more established Asian economies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% probability Chain: The current trend of capital flow towards South Korea and Taiwan continues with no significant shifts in investor sentiment. The Indian mark (18% model probability, not a guarantee)