Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia's increased pulse production leads to a surge in global demand, exceeding supply. This triggers price increases and potential trade disputes with other exporting countries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Global demand for pulses remains stable as other producers maintain their output levels. Russia's increased production contributes to a slight shift in market share, but supply chain dynamics remain largely unchanged. (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia's increased pulse production leads to a surge in global demand, exceeding supply. This triggers price increases and potential trade disputes with other exporting countries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Global demand for pulses remains stable as other producers maintain their output levels. Russia's increased production contributes to a slight shift in market share, but supply chain dynamics remain largely unchanged. (48% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia's increased pulse production leads to a surge in global demand, exceeding supply. This triggers price increases and potential trade disputes with other exporting countries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Global demand for pulses remains stable as other producers maintain their output levels. Russia's increased production contributes to a slight shift in market share, but supply chain dynamics remain largely unchanged. (18% model probability, not a guarantee)

Russia became largest producer of pulses among exporting countries in 2025

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators