S5/10Economic

Five ways the Iran peace deal could affect you and your money

With fuel and gas prices having fallen in recent days, we look at how the end of hostitlities might affect you - in five charts.

18 Jun 2026, 23:06 UTCSource: BBC BusinessOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация15% model probability

Iran's nuclear program resumes activity. Tensions rise between Iran and its neighbors in the region. US sanctions on Iran are re-imposed, leading to increased oil prices and volatility in global markets. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding nuclear development; Diplomatic tensions escalate with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sanctions enforcement by the US Treasury. Time horizon: 45 da

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding nuclear development; Diplomatic tensions escalate with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sanctions enforcement by the US Treasury. Time horizon: 45 da
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво62% model probability

Iran's nuclear program resumes activity. Tensions rise between Iran and its neighbors in the region. US sanctions on Iran are re-imposed, leading to increased oil prices and volatility in global markets. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding nuclear development; Diplomatic tensions escalate with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sanctions enforcement by the US Treasury. Time horizon: 45 da

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding nuclear development; Diplomatic tensions escalate with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sanctions enforcement by the US Treasury. Time horizon: 45 da
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация23% model probability

Iran's nuclear program resumes activity. Tensions rise between Iran and its neighbors in the region. US sanctions on Iran are re-imposed, leading to increased oil prices and volatility in global markets. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding nuclear development; Diplomatic tensions escalate with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sanctions enforcement by the US Treasury. Time horizon: 45 da

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding nuclear development; Diplomatic tensions escalate with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sanctions enforcement by the US Treasury. Time horizon: 45 da
Horizon: 7–30 days