Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios in the requested format: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In 30 days, a surprise drone strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility → in 45 days, global oil prices surge by 20% → in 60 days, leading to a sharp increase in inflation rates across the G7 economies. Confirmation indicators: 1. Increased tensions between Iran and its regional adversaries. 2. A notable spike in oil futures trading volumes. 3. A statement from OPEC+ confirming plans for an emergency production cut. Time horizon: 2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00 to 2026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00 Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% In the next 60 days, diplomatic efforts between Iran and its Western allies → in 90 days, a mutually acceptable nuclear deal is reached → in 120 days, global markets return to pre-conflict levels. Confirmation indicators: 1. A meeting between Iranian and US diplomats results in a joint state (51% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios in the requested format: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In 30 days, a surprise drone strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility → in 45 days, global oil prices surge by 20% → in 60 days, leading to a sharp increase in inflation rates across the G7 economies. Confirmation indicators: 1. Increased tensions between Iran and its regional adversaries. 2. A notable spike in oil futures trading volumes. 3. A statement from OPEC+ confirming plans for an emergency production cut. Time horizon: 2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00 to 2026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00 Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% In the next 60 days, diplomatic efforts between Iran and its Western allies → in 90 days, a mutually acceptable nuclear deal is reached → in 120 days, global markets return to pre-conflict levels. Confirmation indicators: 1. A meeting between Iranian and US diplomats results in a joint state (36% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios in the requested format: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In 30 days, a surprise drone strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility → in 45 days, global oil prices surge by 20% → in 60 days, leading to a sharp increase in inflation rates across the G7 economies. Confirmation indicators: 1. Increased tensions between Iran and its regional adversaries. 2. A notable spike in oil futures trading volumes. 3. A statement from OPEC+ confirming plans for an emergency production cut. Time horizon: 2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00 to 2026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00 Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% In the next 60 days, diplomatic efforts between Iran and its Western allies → in 90 days, a mutually acceptable nuclear deal is reached → in 120 days, global markets return to pre-conflict levels. Confirmation indicators: 1. A meeting between Iranian and US diplomats results in a joint state (13% model probability, not a guarantee)