S9/10Natural
Major quake off Philippines kills at least four, triggers tsunami warnings
A powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake rocked the southern Philippines on Monday, killing at least four people, toppling buildings and prompting tsunami warnings across parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific, as authorities ordered coastal residents to evacuate and rescuers searched for victims amid strong aftershocks.
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 70% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Reports of significant damage to infrastructure and critical services (power grid, transportation) exceeding initial assessments, followed by widespread protests demanding immediate action from the government.
Horizon: 10–20 days
B
Status quo— 22% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Reports of significant damage to infrastructure and critical services (power grid, transportation) exceeding initial assessments, followed by widespread protests demanding immediate action from the government.
Horizon: 10–20 days
C
De-escalation— 8% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Reports of significant damage to infrastructure and critical services (power grid, transportation) exceeding initial assessments, followed by widespread protests demanding immediate action from the government.
Horizon: 10–20 days