Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Morgan Stanley's bullish LNG outlook leads to increased investment in LNG projects and infrastructure globally. This drives up demand for liquefaction equipment, leading to a surge in prices for specialized vessels used in the process. * Confirmation indicators: Significant increase in global LNG project announcements from major players (e.g., Shell, TotalEnergies) within 30 days. A substantial rise in the price of specialized liquefaction vessels on major stock exchanges within 60 days. * Time horizon: 120-180 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Asian demand for LNG remains stable, driven by continued growth in its industrial sector and a gradual increase in the use of natural gas as a fuel source. European restocking needs are met through existing inventories and long-term contracts, le (27% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Morgan Stanley's bullish LNG outlook leads to increased investment in LNG projects and infrastructure globally. This drives up demand for liquefaction equipment, leading to a surge in prices for specialized vessels used in the process. * Confirmation indicators: Significant increase in global LNG project announcements from major players (e.g., Shell, TotalEnergies) within 30 days. A substantial rise in the price of specialized liquefaction vessels on major stock exchanges within 60 days. * Time horizon: 120-180 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Asian demand for LNG remains stable, driven by continued growth in its industrial sector and a gradual increase in the use of natural gas as a fuel source. European restocking needs are met through existing inventories and long-term contracts, le (53% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Morgan Stanley's bullish LNG outlook leads to increased investment in LNG projects and infrastructure globally. This drives up demand for liquefaction equipment, leading to a surge in prices for specialized vessels used in the process. * Confirmation indicators: Significant increase in global LNG project announcements from major players (e.g., Shell, TotalEnergies) within 30 days. A substantial rise in the price of specialized liquefaction vessels on major stock exchanges within 60 days. * Time horizon: 120-180 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Asian demand for LNG remains stable, driven by continued growth in its industrial sector and a gradual increase in the use of natural gas as a fuel source. European restocking needs are met through existing inventories and long-term contracts, le (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

Morgan Stanley видит риски роста спроса на СПГ в связи с ростом спроса в Азии

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