Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Tensions continue to rise between Iran and Israel, with increased rhetoric from both sides. A direct military confrontation is likely within the next two weeks, escalating into a major regional conflict. This could involve proxy conflicts in Lebanon or Syria, leading to a significant increase in global oil prices and stock market volatility. * Increased number of military exercises and deployments by Iran and Israel near each other's borders. * Public statements from Iranian leaders expressing aggression towards Israel. * Confirmed reports of targeted attacks against Israeli infrastructure or assets. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: A ceasefire agreement is reached between Iran and Israel within the next two months, with international mediation playing a ke (65% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Tensions continue to rise between Iran and Israel, with increased rhetoric from both sides. A direct military confrontation is likely within the next two weeks, escalating into a major regional conflict. This could involve proxy conflicts in Lebanon or Syria, leading to a significant increase in global oil prices and stock market volatility. * Increased number of military exercises and deployments by Iran and Israel near each other's borders. * Public statements from Iranian leaders expressing aggression towards Israel. * Confirmed reports of targeted attacks against Israeli infrastructure or assets. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: A ceasefire agreement is reached between Iran and Israel within the next two months, with international mediation playing a ke (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Tensions continue to rise between Iran and Israel, with increased rhetoric from both sides. A direct military confrontation is likely within the next two weeks, escalating into a major regional conflict. This could involve proxy conflicts in Lebanon or Syria, leading to a significant increase in global oil prices and stock market volatility. * Increased number of military exercises and deployments by Iran and Israel near each other's borders. * Public statements from Iranian leaders expressing aggression towards Israel. * Confirmed reports of targeted attacks against Israeli infrastructure or assets. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: A ceasefire agreement is reached between Iran and Israel within the next two months, with international mediation playing a ke (9% model probability, not a guarantee)