Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

The US imposes targeted sanctions on Sudan's military leadership and allies within the African Union. This triggers an escalation from the RSF, who begin deploying more advanced weaponry into el-Obeid. The UN Security Council holds an emergency meeting and calls for a ceasefire. Tensions rise between Sudan's factions and neighboring countries. Confirmation indicators: US sanctions: Imposition of targeted sanctions on specific individuals w (49% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

The US imposes targeted sanctions on Sudan's military leadership and allies within the African Union. This triggers an escalation from the RSF, who begin deploying more advanced weaponry into el-Obeid. The UN Security Council holds an emergency meeting and calls for a ceasefire. Tensions rise between Sudan's factions and neighboring countries. Confirmation indicators: US sanctions: Imposition of targeted sanctions on specific individuals w (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

The US imposes targeted sanctions on Sudan's military leadership and allies within the African Union. This triggers an escalation from the RSF, who begin deploying more advanced weaponry into el-Obeid. The UN Security Council holds an emergency meeting and calls for a ceasefire. Tensions rise between Sudan's factions and neighboring countries. Confirmation indicators: US sanctions: Imposition of targeted sanctions on specific individuals w (14% model probability, not a guarantee)