Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Armenia over the wheat and fertilizer exports trigger diplomatic disputes escalating into sanctions or military deployments. This could lead to retaliatory actions from Azerbaijan, potentially impacting trade routes and causing regional instability. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Existing trade agreements and diplomatic channels remain active, with Armenia importing wheat and fertilizers from Russia via Azerbaijan as usual. The situation remains relatively stable, potentially leading to increased pressure on the Armenian government to secure alternative sources for (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Armenia over the wheat and fertilizer exports trigger diplomatic disputes escalating into sanctions or military deployments. This could lead to retaliatory actions from Azerbaijan, potentially impacting trade routes and causing regional instability. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Existing trade agreements and diplomatic channels remain active, with Armenia importing wheat and fertilizers from Russia via Azerbaijan as usual. The situation remains relatively stable, potentially leading to increased pressure on the Armenian government to secure alternative sources for (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Armenia over the wheat and fertilizer exports trigger diplomatic disputes escalating into sanctions or military deployments. This could lead to retaliatory actions from Azerbaijan, potentially impacting trade routes and causing regional instability. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Existing trade agreements and diplomatic channels remain active, with Armenia importing wheat and fertilizers from Russia via Azerbaijan as usual. The situation remains relatively stable, potentially leading to increased pressure on the Armenian government to secure alternative sources for (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Wheat, fertilizers exported from Russia to Armenia via Azerbaijan — agency

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators