S9/10Military
Middle East War: US strikes Iran after Trump says ceasefire was violated
The US struck Iran on Friday to respond to a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, a provocation that US President Donald Trump said violated the ceasefire. The British military said Thursday that a vessel was hit by a projectile off Oman. This comes at a fragile time for the US and Iranian negotiations over interim peace deal. Follow our liveblog for the latest updates.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 50% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days