Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-China trade tensions escalate further, leading to renewed tariffs on soybeans and other agricultural products. This triggers retaliatory measures from China, including a potential ban on imports from the US. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The existing trade agreement between China and the US remains in place, with continued negotiations for increased soybean purchases. The US Department of Agriculture continues to work on promoting American agriculture globally. (57% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-China trade tensions escalate further, leading to renewed tariffs on soybeans and other agricultural products. This triggers retaliatory measures from China, including a potential ban on imports from the US. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The existing trade agreement between China and the US remains in place, with continued negotiations for increased soybean purchases. The US Department of Agriculture continues to work on promoting American agriculture globally. (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-China trade tensions escalate further, leading to renewed tariffs on soybeans and other agricultural products. This triggers retaliatory measures from China, including a potential ban on imports from the US. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The existing trade agreement between China and the US remains in place, with continued negotiations for increased soybean purchases. The US Department of Agriculture continues to work on promoting American agriculture globally. (12% model probability, not a guarantee)