Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% India's gold-based lenders may see increased business activity as import tariffs on gold rise. This could lead to higher demand for loans and potentially increased competition within the lending sector. This scenario is likely to unfold in the next few weeks, with a surge in loan applications from businesses seeking financing for gold imports. Increased interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India may further contribute to this trend. * Significant increase in loan applications from gold-related businesses (e.g., jewelry manufacturers) within a week. * Reports of increased competition amongst Indian lenders offering gold loans. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current trend of India's gold-based lending industry remains relatively stable. This scenario (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% India's gold-based lenders may see increased business activity as import tariffs on gold rise. This could lead to higher demand for loans and potentially increased competition within the lending sector. This scenario is likely to unfold in the next few weeks, with a surge in loan applications from businesses seeking financing for gold imports. Increased interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India may further contribute to this trend. * Significant increase in loan applications from gold-related businesses (e.g., jewelry manufacturers) within a week. * Reports of increased competition amongst Indian lenders offering gold loans. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current trend of India's gold-based lending industry remains relatively stable. This scenario (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% India's gold-based lenders may see increased business activity as import tariffs on gold rise. This could lead to higher demand for loans and potentially increased competition within the lending sector. This scenario is likely to unfold in the next few weeks, with a surge in loan applications from businesses seeking financing for gold imports. Increased interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India may further contribute to this trend. * Significant increase in loan applications from gold-related businesses (e.g., jewelry manufacturers) within a week. * Reports of increased competition amongst Indian lenders offering gold loans. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current trend of India's gold-based lending industry remains relatively stable. This scenario (13% model probability, not a guarantee)