S9/10Military

Sudan: Warnings mount over the risk of new mass atrocities

As Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces mass around the strategic city of el-Obeid, fears are growing of atrocities similar to those seen in Darfur's el-Fasher. Could sanctions still prevent bloodshed?

25 Jun 2026, 16:33 UTCSource: DW WorldOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация89% model probability

Сценарий А (Эскалация) - 50% [Цепочка эскалации: - Rapid Support Forcesmass around el-Obeid within 3 days → increased tensions - Increased military activity in the region within 5 days → clashes with opposition forces - Mass atrocities reported in el-Fasher within 7 days → international intervention] Confirmation indicators: - Увеличение военных операций в регионе - Деятельность Rapid Support Forces в el-Obeid - Заявления о массовых убийствах в Darfur Время горизонта: 3–7 дне

Horizon: 7–30 days