Sudan: Warnings mount over the risk of new mass atrocities
As Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces mass around the strategic city of el-Obeid, fears are growing of atrocities similar to those seen in Darfur's el-Fasher. Could sanctions still prevent bloodshed?
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Сценарий А (Эскалация) - 50% [Цепочка эскалации: - Rapid Support Forcesmass around el-Obeid within 3 days → increased tensions - Increased military activity in the region within 5 days → clashes with opposition forces - Mass atrocities reported in el-Fasher within 7 days → international intervention] Confirmation indicators: - Увеличение военных операций в регионе - Деятельность Rapid Support Forces в el-Obeid - Заявления о массовых убийствах в Darfur Время горизонта: 3–7 дне