Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Weak rupee leads to increased borrowing costs for companies with large foreign debt. This drives up input prices and squeezes profit margins, particularly impacting small businesses already facing economic headwinds. Increased pressure on these companies could lead to a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. * A sharp rise in the cost of imported raw materials and components. * A significant increase in corporate borrowing costs as measured by credit default swaps. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Companies adjust to currency fluctuations through hedging strategies, potentially impacting investment decisions. The government implements measures to mitigate the impact on businesses and the economy as a whole. Economic activity remains relatively stable with some adjustme (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Weak rupee leads to increased borrowing costs for companies with large foreign debt. This drives up input prices and squeezes profit margins, particularly impacting small businesses already facing economic headwinds. Increased pressure on these companies could lead to a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. * A sharp rise in the cost of imported raw materials and components. * A significant increase in corporate borrowing costs as measured by credit default swaps. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Companies adjust to currency fluctuations through hedging strategies, potentially impacting investment decisions. The government implements measures to mitigate the impact on businesses and the economy as a whole. Economic activity remains relatively stable with some adjustme (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Weak rupee leads to increased borrowing costs for companies with large foreign debt. This drives up input prices and squeezes profit margins, particularly impacting small businesses already facing economic headwinds. Increased pressure on these companies could lead to a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. * A sharp rise in the cost of imported raw materials and components. * A significant increase in corporate borrowing costs as measured by credit default swaps. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Companies adjust to currency fluctuations through hedging strategies, potentially impacting investment decisions. The government implements measures to mitigate the impact on businesses and the economy as a whole. Economic activity remains relatively stable with some adjustme (20% model probability, not a guarantee)