Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates rhetoric against Ukraine's nuclear program, potentially leading to increased military activity around Zaporizhzhia. This could include direct attacks on the power plant or the surrounding infrastructure. The IAEA would likely issue a formal warning and call for international intervention. Confirmation indicators: Increased Russian military exercises near the plant; a public statement from Russia directly threatening Ukraine's nuclear program. Time horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The IAEA continues to monitor communication disruptions at Zaporizhzhia, with limited progress in resolving the issue. This could lead to heightened diplomatic tension between Russia and Ukraine. International organizations might continue to pressure both sides for a resolution. Confirmation indicators: C (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates rhetoric against Ukraine's nuclear program, potentially leading to increased military activity around Zaporizhzhia. This could include direct attacks on the power plant or the surrounding infrastructure. The IAEA would likely issue a formal warning and call for international intervention. Confirmation indicators: Increased Russian military exercises near the plant; a public statement from Russia directly threatening Ukraine's nuclear program. Time horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The IAEA continues to monitor communication disruptions at Zaporizhzhia, with limited progress in resolving the issue. This could lead to heightened diplomatic tension between Russia and Ukraine. International organizations might continue to pressure both sides for a resolution. Confirmation indicators: C (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates rhetoric against Ukraine's nuclear program, potentially leading to increased military activity around Zaporizhzhia. This could include direct attacks on the power plant or the surrounding infrastructure. The IAEA would likely issue a formal warning and call for international intervention. Confirmation indicators: Increased Russian military exercises near the plant; a public statement from Russia directly threatening Ukraine's nuclear program. Time horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The IAEA continues to monitor communication disruptions at Zaporizhzhia, with limited progress in resolving the issue. This could lead to heightened diplomatic tension between Russia and Ukraine. International organizations might continue to pressure both sides for a resolution. Confirmation indicators: C (6% model probability, not a guarantee)