Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Euronews news bulletin reports escalating tensions between France and Germany over trade tariffs on agricultural products. This triggers a series of retaliatory measures, including sanctions on key German exports to France. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from French and German leaders regarding the trade dispute, followed by the imposition of specific sanctions on German companies. * Time horizon: 10 days - 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Euronews news bulletin reports a series of economic indicators showing continued growth in Europe. This leads to a more cautious approach from the European Central Bank regarding interest rate hikes, maintaining current policies for now. * Confirmation indicators: Continued positive economic data releases (e.g., GDP growth (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Euronews news bulletin reports escalating tensions between France and Germany over trade tariffs on agricultural products. This triggers a series of retaliatory measures, including sanctions on key German exports to France. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from French and German leaders regarding the trade dispute, followed by the imposition of specific sanctions on German companies. * Time horizon: 10 days - 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Euronews news bulletin reports a series of economic indicators showing continued growth in Europe. This leads to a more cautious approach from the European Central Bank regarding interest rate hikes, maintaining current policies for now. * Confirmation indicators: Continued positive economic data releases (e.g., GDP growth (55% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Euronews news bulletin reports escalating tensions between France and Germany over trade tariffs on agricultural products. This triggers a series of retaliatory measures, including sanctions on key German exports to France. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from French and German leaders regarding the trade dispute, followed by the imposition of specific sanctions on German companies. * Time horizon: 10 days - 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Euronews news bulletin reports a series of economic indicators showing continued growth in Europe. This leads to a more cautious approach from the European Central Bank regarding interest rate hikes, maintaining current policies for now. * Confirmation indicators: Continued positive economic data releases (e.g., GDP growth (20% model probability, not a guarantee)