Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's public criticism of EU demands for Ukraine's alignment intensifies. This leads to diplomatic tensions escalating into a series of closed-door meetings between Ukrainian officials and EU representatives. These meetings are marked by increasing accusations, with Ukraine demanding greater support on the battlefield without compromising its sovereignty. The situation deteriorates further as Russia uses the pressure as leverage to increase military presence near the border. * Increased rhetoric from both Zelensky's office and EU leaders in public statements. * A formal announcement of a Ukrainian delegation meeting with EU officials, followed by accusations of inaction on the part of the EU. * Reports of increased Russian troop movements near Ukraine's border. Scenar (68% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's public criticism of EU demands for Ukraine's alignment intensifies. This leads to diplomatic tensions escalating into a series of closed-door meetings between Ukrainian officials and EU representatives. These meetings are marked by increasing accusations, with Ukraine demanding greater support on the battlefield without compromising its sovereignty. The situation deteriorates further as Russia uses the pressure as leverage to increase military presence near the border. * Increased rhetoric from both Zelensky's office and EU leaders in public statements. * A formal announcement of a Ukrainian delegation meeting with EU officials, followed by accusations of inaction on the part of the EU. * Reports of increased Russian troop movements near Ukraine's border. Scenar (24% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Zelensky's public criticism of EU demands for Ukraine's alignment intensifies. This leads to diplomatic tensions escalating into a series of closed-door meetings between Ukrainian officials and EU representatives. These meetings are marked by increasing accusations, with Ukraine demanding greater support on the battlefield without compromising its sovereignty. The situation deteriorates further as Russia uses the pressure as leverage to increase military presence near the border. * Increased rhetoric from both Zelensky's office and EU leaders in public statements. * A formal announcement of a Ukrainian delegation meeting with EU officials, followed by accusations of inaction on the part of the EU. * Reports of increased Russian troop movements near Ukraine's border. Scenar (9% model probability, not a guarantee)