Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Robust job market data fuels inflation concerns, leading to increased Fed rate hike expectations. This triggers market volatility and a potential sell-off in risk assets like equities. The Fed announces a rate hike as early as July 2026. * Confirmation indicators: Strong employment reports exceeding expectations for June and July, followed by persistent inflationary pressures reflected in consumer price index data. * Time horizon: July 2026 - August 2026 Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Fed pauses rate hikes due to a combination of weak inflation data and concerns about potential recessionary pressures. They maintain the current policy stance until further economic data reveals a clear trend in inflation. * Confirmation indicators: Consumer price index shows modest increases, but re (22% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Robust job market data fuels inflation concerns, leading to increased Fed rate hike expectations. This triggers market volatility and a potential sell-off in risk assets like equities. The Fed announces a rate hike as early as July 2026. * Confirmation indicators: Strong employment reports exceeding expectations for June and July, followed by persistent inflationary pressures reflected in consumer price index data. * Time horizon: July 2026 - August 2026 Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Fed pauses rate hikes due to a combination of weak inflation data and concerns about potential recessionary pressures. They maintain the current policy stance until further economic data reveals a clear trend in inflation. * Confirmation indicators: Consumer price index shows modest increases, but re (57% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Robust job market data fuels inflation concerns, leading to increased Fed rate hike expectations. This triggers market volatility and a potential sell-off in risk assets like equities. The Fed announces a rate hike as early as July 2026. * Confirmation indicators: Strong employment reports exceeding expectations for June and July, followed by persistent inflationary pressures reflected in consumer price index data. * Time horizon: July 2026 - August 2026 Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Fed pauses rate hikes due to a combination of weak inflation data and concerns about potential recessionary pressures. They maintain the current policy stance until further economic data reveals a clear trend in inflation. * Confirmation indicators: Consumer price index shows modest increases, but re (21% model probability, not a guarantee)

ФРС рассматривает возможность «повышения ставок прямо сейчас», поскольку планка действий становится ниже

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