S7/10Economic

China-Asean relations are bigger than mere geopolitics

China-Asean relations are usually described in two ways. One emphasises danger: the South China Sea, US-China rivalry, military pressure and risk of Southeast Asia being pulled into China’s orbit. The other emphasises opportunity: trade, infrastructure, investment, supply chains and shared growth. Both are true. Neither is enough. I recently joined a study tour by the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World to Chengdu, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta. During the trip, I was...

21 Jun 2026, 21:30 UTCSource: South China Morning PostOriginal source

Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).

⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация51% model probability

China's assertive stance on territorial claims in the South China Sea escalates into direct military confrontation with ASEAN nations. Tensions rise as Chinese naval activity increases near disputed islands, followed by a series of joint military exercises between China and Russia. This triggers retaliatory actions from ASEAN countries, including increased diplomatic pressure on China and potential expansion of regional alliances. Confirma

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво36% model probability

China's assertive stance on territorial claims in the South China Sea escalates into direct military confrontation with ASEAN nations. Tensions rise as Chinese naval activity increases near disputed islands, followed by a series of joint military exercises between China and Russia. This triggers retaliatory actions from ASEAN countries, including increased diplomatic pressure on China and potential expansion of regional alliances. Confirma

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация13% model probability

China's assertive stance on territorial claims in the South China Sea escalates into direct military confrontation with ASEAN nations. Tensions rise as Chinese naval activity increases near disputed islands, followed by a series of joint military exercises between China and Russia. This triggers retaliatory actions from ASEAN countries, including increased diplomatic pressure on China and potential expansion of regional alliances. Confirma

Horizon: 7–30 days