Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% This scenario sees an escalation in bankruptcies due to economic pressures. A combination of rising interest rates and shrinking consumer confidence will likely lead to increased business failures, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and retail. Within a week, we see a surge in media coverage focusing on the issue, potentially triggering market volatility. This could exacerbate existing economic uncertainty within Germany and beyond, with investors becoming more cautious about future prospects. * A significant increase (15%) in German insolvency filings within the next two weeks. * A decline of 20% in consumer confidence index by the end of June. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees a continuation of existing economic conditions, with (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% This scenario sees an escalation in bankruptcies due to economic pressures. A combination of rising interest rates and shrinking consumer confidence will likely lead to increased business failures, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and retail. Within a week, we see a surge in media coverage focusing on the issue, potentially triggering market volatility. This could exacerbate existing economic uncertainty within Germany and beyond, with investors becoming more cautious about future prospects. * A significant increase (15%) in German insolvency filings within the next two weeks. * A decline of 20% in consumer confidence index by the end of June. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees a continuation of existing economic conditions, with (48% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% This scenario sees an escalation in bankruptcies due to economic pressures. A combination of rising interest rates and shrinking consumer confidence will likely lead to increased business failures, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and retail. Within a week, we see a surge in media coverage focusing on the issue, potentially triggering market volatility. This could exacerbate existing economic uncertainty within Germany and beyond, with investors becoming more cautious about future prospects. * A significant increase (15%) in German insolvency filings within the next two weeks. * A decline of 20% in consumer confidence index by the end of June. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees a continuation of existing economic conditions, with (18% model probability, not a guarantee)