Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Ukraine's economic crisis intensifies, leading to increased international pressure for immediate action. This pressure escalates into a diplomatic standoff with Russia, potentially involving military escalation. * Timeline: Within 1-2 weeks, escalating rhetoric and sanctions from the West lead to direct military intervention by NATO forces in support of Ukraine. * Effect: A rapid decline in global markets as investors anticipate heightened geopolitical risk. The conflict could spill over into a broader regional crisis, potentially involving other nations with strong ties to either Russia or Ukraine. * Public statements from Western leaders expressing direct military intervention support for Ukraine within the next 2 weeks. * Increased Russian military activity near Ukr (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Ukraine's economic crisis intensifies, leading to increased international pressure for immediate action. This pressure escalates into a diplomatic standoff with Russia, potentially involving military escalation. * Timeline: Within 1-2 weeks, escalating rhetoric and sanctions from the West lead to direct military intervention by NATO forces in support of Ukraine. * Effect: A rapid decline in global markets as investors anticipate heightened geopolitical risk. The conflict could spill over into a broader regional crisis, potentially involving other nations with strong ties to either Russia or Ukraine. * Public statements from Western leaders expressing direct military intervention support for Ukraine within the next 2 weeks. * Increased Russian military activity near Ukr (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Ukraine's economic crisis intensifies, leading to increased international pressure for immediate action. This pressure escalates into a diplomatic standoff with Russia, potentially involving military escalation. * Timeline: Within 1-2 weeks, escalating rhetoric and sanctions from the West lead to direct military intervention by NATO forces in support of Ukraine. * Effect: A rapid decline in global markets as investors anticipate heightened geopolitical risk. The conflict could spill over into a broader regional crisis, potentially involving other nations with strong ties to either Russia or Ukraine. * Public statements from Western leaders expressing direct military intervention support for Ukraine within the next 2 weeks. * Increased Russian military activity near Ukr (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Ukraine lost 20% of international reserves year-to-date

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators