Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Belarus increases military presence near Ukraine's borders. Russia deploys more advanced weaponry into Belarus. Ukrainian forces report increased drone and missile attacks on critical infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. International pressure for sanctions against Belarus intensifies. Time horizon: 1-3 months. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Ukraine continues to receive military support from Western allies, includ (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Belarus increases military presence near Ukraine's borders. Russia deploys more advanced weaponry into Belarus. Ukrainian forces report increased drone and missile attacks on critical infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. International pressure for sanctions against Belarus intensifies. Time horizon: 1-3 months. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Ukraine continues to receive military support from Western allies, includ (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Belarus increases military presence near Ukraine's borders. Russia deploys more advanced weaponry into Belarus. Ukrainian forces report increased drone and missile attacks on critical infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. International pressure for sanctions against Belarus intensifies. Time horizon: 1-3 months. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: Ukraine continues to receive military support from Western allies, includ (6% model probability, not a guarantee)