Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU's trade liberalization talks with India intensify, leading to increased bilateral trade volume and investment flows. This could trigger a renewed geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West, potentially leading to sanctions or diplomatic tensions. * Confirmation indicators: Increased public statements from both sides regarding trade agreements and potential economic cooperation. A surge in media coverage of the EAEU-India trade talks with focus on their implications for global trade. * Time horizon: 60 days - 120 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Trade liberalization talks between EAEU and India proceed at a slow pace, with limited concrete progress. This could lead to continued economic strain on Russia and India, potentially impacting their respective trade balances and invest (18% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU's trade liberalization talks with India intensify, leading to increased bilateral trade volume and investment flows. This could trigger a renewed geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West, potentially leading to sanctions or diplomatic tensions. * Confirmation indicators: Increased public statements from both sides regarding trade agreements and potential economic cooperation. A surge in media coverage of the EAEU-India trade talks with focus on their implications for global trade. * Time horizon: 60 days - 120 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Trade liberalization talks between EAEU and India proceed at a slow pace, with limited concrete progress. This could lead to continued economic strain on Russia and India, potentially impacting their respective trade balances and invest (60% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU's trade liberalization talks with India intensify, leading to increased bilateral trade volume and investment flows. This could trigger a renewed geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West, potentially leading to sanctions or diplomatic tensions. * Confirmation indicators: Increased public statements from both sides regarding trade agreements and potential economic cooperation. A surge in media coverage of the EAEU-India trade talks with focus on their implications for global trade. * Time horizon: 60 days - 120 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Trade liberalization talks between EAEU and India proceed at a slow pace, with limited concrete progress. This could lead to continued economic strain on Russia and India, potentially impacting their respective trade balances and invest (22% model probability, not a guarantee)