Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with Russia expanding its trade and financial ties within the EAEU, potentially increasing military presence in bordering regions. This could lead to increased tensions with Western powers, who may impose sanctions or retaliate through economic measures. Confirmation indicators include a significant increase in Russian military exercises near the borders of EAEU member states and diplomatic clashes between Russia and Western countries. Time horizon: 1-3 months. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees continued expansion of trade, financial cooperation, and political dialogue within the EAEU. This could lead to increased regional integration and economic growth. Confirmation indicators include a successful completion of trade deals between EAEU member states and an increase in i (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with Russia expanding its trade and financial ties within the EAEU, potentially increasing military presence in bordering regions. This could lead to increased tensions with Western powers, who may impose sanctions or retaliate through economic measures. Confirmation indicators include a significant increase in Russian military exercises near the borders of EAEU member states and diplomatic clashes between Russia and Western countries. Time horizon: 1-3 months. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees continued expansion of trade, financial cooperation, and political dialogue within the EAEU. This could lead to increased regional integration and economic growth. Confirmation indicators include a successful completion of trade deals between EAEU member states and an increase in i (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with Russia expanding its trade and financial ties within the EAEU, potentially increasing military presence in bordering regions. This could lead to increased tensions with Western powers, who may impose sanctions or retaliate through economic measures. Confirmation indicators include a significant increase in Russian military exercises near the borders of EAEU member states and diplomatic clashes between Russia and Western countries. Time horizon: 1-3 months. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees continued expansion of trade, financial cooperation, and political dialogue within the EAEU. This could lead to increased regional integration and economic growth. Confirmation indicators include a successful completion of trade deals between EAEU member states and an increase in i (19% model probability, not a guarantee)