Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b (56% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b (32% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b (12% model probability, not a guarantee)