Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia implements stricter import controls on Armenian fruits and vegetables beyond the existing restrictions, potentially including increased inspections and higher tariffs. This escalation could lead to a temporary decline in trade volume between Armenia and Russia. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage of Russian-Armenian trade tensions, official statements from both governments expressing concerns about phytosanitary safety, and reports of delays or cancellations of shipments. * Time Horizon: 10 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The existing restrictions on Armenian fruits and vegetables remain in place. Russia continues to monitor the situation with Armenia, but no further action is taken beyond current protocols. * Confirmation Indicators: No significan (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia implements stricter import controls on Armenian fruits and vegetables beyond the existing restrictions, potentially including increased inspections and higher tariffs. This escalation could lead to a temporary decline in trade volume between Armenia and Russia. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage of Russian-Armenian trade tensions, official statements from both governments expressing concerns about phytosanitary safety, and reports of delays or cancellations of shipments. * Time Horizon: 10 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The existing restrictions on Armenian fruits and vegetables remain in place. Russia continues to monitor the situation with Armenia, but no further action is taken beyond current protocols. * Confirmation Indicators: No significan (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia implements stricter import controls on Armenian fruits and vegetables beyond the existing restrictions, potentially including increased inspections and higher tariffs. This escalation could lead to a temporary decline in trade volume between Armenia and Russia. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage of Russian-Armenian trade tensions, official statements from both governments expressing concerns about phytosanitary safety, and reports of delays or cancellations of shipments. * Time Horizon: 10 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The existing restrictions on Armenian fruits and vegetables remain in place. Russia continues to monitor the situation with Armenia, but no further action is taken beyond current protocols. * Confirmation Indicators: No significan (19% model probability, not a guarantee)