Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% A cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the Philippines occurs within 7-10 days after the earthquake, compromising power and communication services. This would lead to increased humanitarian needs, displacement of affected populations, and potential for social unrest. 1. Reports of targeted attacks on government websites. 2. Decrease in internet connectivity across the region. 3. Power grid failures in multiple provinces. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The international community provides significant humanitarian aid and relief efforts, focusing on search and rescue operations, medical care, and infrastructure repair. This would lead to a stabilization of the situation, allowing for gradual recovery and rebuilding. 1. Arrival of emergency responders from multip (49% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% A cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the Philippines occurs within 7-10 days after the earthquake, compromising power and communication services. This would lead to increased humanitarian needs, displacement of affected populations, and potential for social unrest. 1. Reports of targeted attacks on government websites. 2. Decrease in internet connectivity across the region. 3. Power grid failures in multiple provinces. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The international community provides significant humanitarian aid and relief efforts, focusing on search and rescue operations, medical care, and infrastructure repair. This would lead to a stabilization of the situation, allowing for gradual recovery and rebuilding. 1. Arrival of emergency responders from multip (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% A cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the Philippines occurs within 7-10 days after the earthquake, compromising power and communication services. This would lead to increased humanitarian needs, displacement of affected populations, and potential for social unrest. 1. Reports of targeted attacks on government websites. 2. Decrease in internet connectivity across the region. 3. Power grid failures in multiple provinces. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The international community provides significant humanitarian aid and relief efforts, focusing on search and rescue operations, medical care, and infrastructure repair. This would lead to a stabilization of the situation, allowing for gradual recovery and rebuilding. 1. Arrival of emergency responders from multip (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Magnitude 7.8 earthquake rocks southern Philippines

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators