S7/10Natural
Seven earthquakes recorded off Crimea’s coast near Sevastopol
Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said that further tremors are possible
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 43% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity near Crimea's coast, including naval exercises and troop deployments. Time horizon: 7
- ◆14 days. Escalation may lead to: The Russian government issuing a formal declaration of territorial claims over the area. A heightened risk of direct conflict between Russia
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Статус-кво— 41% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity near Crimea's coast, including naval exercises and troop deployments. Time horizon: 7
- ◆14 days. Escalation may lead to: The Russian government issuing a formal declaration of territorial claims over the area. A heightened risk of direct conflict between Russia
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
Деэскалация— 15% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity near Crimea's coast, including naval exercises and troop deployments. Time horizon: 7
- ◆14 days. Escalation may lead to: The Russian government issuing a formal declaration of territorial claims over the area. A heightened risk of direct conflict between Russia
Horizon: 7–14 days