Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The Bank of Russia's sale of yuan triggers speculation about future actions regarding China's currency peg to the dollar. This leads to increased volatility in global currencies, particularly emerging market currencies, as investors seek safe haven assets. A further escalation could see a rise in geopolitical tensions between Russia and China, impacting trade relations and potentially leading to sanctions on Chinese companies operating in the Russian market. * A significant increase in volatility of major currency pairs (e.g., USD/EUR, USD/JPY) over the next 5 days. * Increased media coverage focusing on geopolitical tensions between Russia and China. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The Bank of Russia's sale of yuan is not followed by significant change (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The Bank of Russia's sale of yuan triggers speculation about future actions regarding China's currency peg to the dollar. This leads to increased volatility in global currencies, particularly emerging market currencies, as investors seek safe haven assets. A further escalation could see a rise in geopolitical tensions between Russia and China, impacting trade relations and potentially leading to sanctions on Chinese companies operating in the Russian market. * A significant increase in volatility of major currency pairs (e.g., USD/EUR, USD/JPY) over the next 5 days. * Increased media coverage focusing on geopolitical tensions between Russia and China. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The Bank of Russia's sale of yuan is not followed by significant change (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The Bank of Russia's sale of yuan triggers speculation about future actions regarding China's currency peg to the dollar. This leads to increased volatility in global currencies, particularly emerging market currencies, as investors seek safe haven assets. A further escalation could see a rise in geopolitical tensions between Russia and China, impacting trade relations and potentially leading to sanctions on Chinese companies operating in the Russian market. * A significant increase in volatility of major currency pairs (e.g., USD/EUR, USD/JPY) over the next 5 days. * Increased media coverage focusing on geopolitical tensions between Russia and China. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The Bank of Russia's sale of yuan is not followed by significant change (19% model probability, not a guarantee)