Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% China's quartz discovery sparks a surge in domestic production and investment. Within 14 days, China announces plans to phase out all imports of high-purity quartz by 2030. This triggers an aggressive expansion of domestic manufacturing facilities, leading to increased competition for raw materials and potentially escalating trade tensions with the US. * Increased Chinese government funding for quartz production projects. * A surge in Chinese exports of quartz products. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% China maintains a cautious approach, gradually increasing domestic quartz production over the next five years. This leads to a gradual reduction in reliance on imports, but China still relies heavily on imports for some high-purity quartz applications. * (32% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% China's quartz discovery sparks a surge in domestic production and investment. Within 14 days, China announces plans to phase out all imports of high-purity quartz by 2030. This triggers an aggressive expansion of domestic manufacturing facilities, leading to increased competition for raw materials and potentially escalating trade tensions with the US. * Increased Chinese government funding for quartz production projects. * A surge in Chinese exports of quartz products. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% China maintains a cautious approach, gradually increasing domestic quartz production over the next five years. This leads to a gradual reduction in reliance on imports, but China still relies heavily on imports for some high-purity quartz applications. * (49% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% China's quartz discovery sparks a surge in domestic production and investment. Within 14 days, China announces plans to phase out all imports of high-purity quartz by 2030. This triggers an aggressive expansion of domestic manufacturing facilities, leading to increased competition for raw materials and potentially escalating trade tensions with the US. * Increased Chinese government funding for quartz production projects. * A surge in Chinese exports of quartz products. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% China maintains a cautious approach, gradually increasing domestic quartz production over the next five years. This leads to a gradual reduction in reliance on imports, but China still relies heavily on imports for some high-purity quartz applications. * (18% model probability, not a guarantee)