Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Russia will likely view the delivery of Meteor missiles to Ukraine as a direct threat to its air superiority in the region. This could lead to increased military activity near Ukrainian borders, including heightened aerial patrols and potential for targeted strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure or military assets. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Baseline: The current state of affairs will likely continue as Ukraine receives its first batch of Gripen fighters and Russia continues to engage in targeted attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, with limited escalation. This scenario may lead to a prolon (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Russia will likely view the delivery of Meteor missiles to Ukraine as a direct threat to its air superiority in the region. This could lead to increased military activity near Ukrainian borders, including heightened aerial patrols and potential for targeted strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure or military assets. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Baseline: The current state of affairs will likely continue as Ukraine receives its first batch of Gripen fighters and Russia continues to engage in targeted attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, with limited escalation. This scenario may lead to a prolon (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Russia will likely view the delivery of Meteor missiles to Ukraine as a direct threat to its air superiority in the region. This could lead to increased military activity near Ukrainian borders, including heightened aerial patrols and potential for targeted strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure or military assets. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Baseline: The current state of affairs will likely continue as Ukraine receives its first batch of Gripen fighters and Russia continues to engage in targeted attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, with limited escalation. This scenario may lead to a prolon (6% model probability, not a guarantee)