Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Evans' comments lead to increased scrutiny and pressure on China to accelerate yuan internationalization. This triggers a series of actions, including: China potentially increasing its issuance of yuan-denominated bonds in the global market, leading to greater yuan trading volume. However, this could also trigger heightened volatility in the Chinese financial markets as investors adjust to these changes. * Confirmation Indicators: A surge in media coverage and public debate about China's approach to internationalizing the yuan within a month. A rise in yuan-denominated bond issuance by Chinese companies exceeding previous levels. * Time Horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The impact of Evans’ comments is limited, and China continues to pursue its own path regarding internationaliz (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Evans' comments lead to increased scrutiny and pressure on China to accelerate yuan internationalization. This triggers a series of actions, including: China potentially increasing its issuance of yuan-denominated bonds in the global market, leading to greater yuan trading volume. However, this could also trigger heightened volatility in the Chinese financial markets as investors adjust to these changes. * Confirmation Indicators: A surge in media coverage and public debate about China's approach to internationalizing the yuan within a month. A rise in yuan-denominated bond issuance by Chinese companies exceeding previous levels. * Time Horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The impact of Evans’ comments is limited, and China continues to pursue its own path regarding internationaliz (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Evans' comments lead to increased scrutiny and pressure on China to accelerate yuan internationalization. This triggers a series of actions, including: China potentially increasing its issuance of yuan-denominated bonds in the global market, leading to greater yuan trading volume. However, this could also trigger heightened volatility in the Chinese financial markets as investors adjust to these changes. * Confirmation Indicators: A surge in media coverage and public debate about China's approach to internationalizing the yuan within a month. A rise in yuan-denominated bond issuance by Chinese companies exceeding previous levels. * Time Horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The impact of Evans’ comments is limited, and China continues to pursue its own path regarding internationaliz (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Что касается юаня на более глубоких рынках, экс-президент ФРС ссылается на сценарий доллара на фоне рисков и критики

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