Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Iran retaliates by halting oil exports to major importers like China and India. US sanctions on Iranian entities involved in oil transportation lead to further economic pressure, potentially escalating into a proxy war with Iran's regional allies. Sanctions-related diplomatic tensions increase between the US and other countries. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: US and Iran continue diplomatic negotiations regarding sanctions and Iran's nuclear program. The pressure from sanctions continues, but without a major escalation in conflict. This scenario could see th (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Iran retaliates by halting oil exports to major importers like China and India. US sanctions on Iranian entities involved in oil transportation lead to further economic pressure, potentially escalating into a proxy war with Iran's regional allies. Sanctions-related diplomatic tensions increase between the US and other countries. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: US and Iran continue diplomatic negotiations regarding sanctions and Iran's nuclear program. The pressure from sanctions continues, but without a major escalation in conflict. This scenario could see th (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Iran retaliates by halting oil exports to major importers like China and India. US sanctions on Iranian entities involved in oil transportation lead to further economic pressure, potentially escalating into a proxy war with Iran's regional allies. Sanctions-related diplomatic tensions increase between the US and other countries. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: US and Iran continue diplomatic negotiations regarding sanctions and Iran's nuclear program. The pressure from sanctions continues, but without a major escalation in conflict. This scenario could see th (6% model probability, not a guarantee)