S5/10Economic
US Premarket Movers for May 29, 2026
S&P 500 Index futures rise 0.1% as of 7:31 a.m. in New York as traders wait to see whether the US and Iran can finally get a peace deal across the line.
29 May 2026, 11:46 UTCSource: Bloomberg Markets
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 12% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran, including public statements from high
- ◆ranking officials on both sides expressing heightened hostility, followed by an increase in military exercises or deployments near disputed areas.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating rhetoric could lead to a rapid escalation of military activity within the next 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 64% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran, including public statements from high
- ◆ranking officials on both sides expressing heightened hostility, followed by an increase in military exercises or deployments near disputed areas.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating rhetoric could lead to a rapid escalation of military activity within the next 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 24% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran, including public statements from high
- ◆ranking officials on both sides expressing heightened hostility, followed by an increase in military exercises or deployments near disputed areas.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating rhetoric could lead to a rapid escalation of military activity within the next 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days