Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: FII selling accelerates, driven by weak global cues and geopolitical tensions in West Asia. This triggers a sell-off in Indian equities, with indices experiencing sustained declines over the next week. * Confirmation Indicators: * Significant outflows of foreign investments exceeding ₹100 billion from India's stock market within 2 days. * A notable increase in volatility on the NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex indices, exceeding historical levels within 3 days. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: RBI policy measures and efforts to attract foreign capital provide some support to market sentiment. However, persistent FII selling, coupled with rising crude oil prices, keeps the markets under pressure. * Confirmation Indicators: * A moderate decline in the Nifty (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: FII selling accelerates, driven by weak global cues and geopolitical tensions in West Asia. This triggers a sell-off in Indian equities, with indices experiencing sustained declines over the next week. * Confirmation Indicators: * Significant outflows of foreign investments exceeding ₹100 billion from India's stock market within 2 days. * A notable increase in volatility on the NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex indices, exceeding historical levels within 3 days. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: RBI policy measures and efforts to attract foreign capital provide some support to market sentiment. However, persistent FII selling, coupled with rising crude oil prices, keeps the markets under pressure. * Confirmation Indicators: * A moderate decline in the Nifty (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: FII selling accelerates, driven by weak global cues and geopolitical tensions in West Asia. This triggers a sell-off in Indian equities, with indices experiencing sustained declines over the next week. * Confirmation Indicators: * Significant outflows of foreign investments exceeding ₹100 billion from India's stock market within 2 days. * A notable increase in volatility on the NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex indices, exceeding historical levels within 3 days. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: RBI policy measures and efforts to attract foreign capital provide some support to market sentiment. However, persistent FII selling, coupled with rising crude oil prices, keeps the markets under pressure. * Confirmation Indicators: * A moderate decline in the Nifty (13% model probability, not a guarantee)