Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's wheat export commitment triggers increased geopolitical tensions with global buyers. This leads to higher demand for alternative wheat sources, potentially causing price spikes in international markets and impacting global food security. * Confirmation Indicators: A significant increase in Russian military activity near Ukrainian borders, followed by a series of sanctions imposed on Russia's agricultural exports by key trading partners. * Time Horizon: 1-2 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The announcement of increased wheat exports from Russia is met with minimal market reaction and no significant changes in global trade dynamics. This scenario assumes existing supply chains remain largely unaffected. * Confirmation Indicators: No major geopolitical developments or sanctio (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's wheat export commitment triggers increased geopolitical tensions with global buyers. This leads to higher demand for alternative wheat sources, potentially causing price spikes in international markets and impacting global food security. * Confirmation Indicators: A significant increase in Russian military activity near Ukrainian borders, followed by a series of sanctions imposed on Russia's agricultural exports by key trading partners. * Time Horizon: 1-2 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The announcement of increased wheat exports from Russia is met with minimal market reaction and no significant changes in global trade dynamics. This scenario assumes existing supply chains remain largely unaffected. * Confirmation Indicators: No major geopolitical developments or sanctio (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's wheat export commitment triggers increased geopolitical tensions with global buyers. This leads to higher demand for alternative wheat sources, potentially causing price spikes in international markets and impacting global food security. * Confirmation Indicators: A significant increase in Russian military activity near Ukrainian borders, followed by a series of sanctions imposed on Russia's agricultural exports by key trading partners. * Time Horizon: 1-2 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The announcement of increased wheat exports from Russia is met with minimal market reaction and no significant changes in global trade dynamics. This scenario assumes existing supply chains remain largely unaffected. * Confirmation Indicators: No major geopolitical developments or sanctio (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Россия экспортирует 50 млн тонн пшеницы в текущем агросезоне — министр

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