Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The DRC government struggles to contain the outbreak due to limited resources and logistical challenges. This leads to an increase in Ebola cases, with a significant spike in reported deaths. The WHO declares a state of emergency and calls for international aid. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage of the outbreak, reports of strained healthcare infrastructure in affected areas, and a surge in panic buying of essential supplies. * Time Horizon: 4 to 8 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The WHO implements containment measures, including quarantine zones and contact tracing protocols. International aid begins arriving, providing medical resources and support staff. Public health officials work diligently to contain the outbreak. * Confirmation Indicators: The DRC govern (40% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The DRC government struggles to contain the outbreak due to limited resources and logistical challenges. This leads to an increase in Ebola cases, with a significant spike in reported deaths. The WHO declares a state of emergency and calls for international aid. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage of the outbreak, reports of strained healthcare infrastructure in affected areas, and a surge in panic buying of essential supplies. * Time Horizon: 4 to 8 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The WHO implements containment measures, including quarantine zones and contact tracing protocols. International aid begins arriving, providing medical resources and support staff. Public health officials work diligently to contain the outbreak. * Confirmation Indicators: The DRC govern (44% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The DRC government struggles to contain the outbreak due to limited resources and logistical challenges. This leads to an increase in Ebola cases, with a significant spike in reported deaths. The WHO declares a state of emergency and calls for international aid. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage of the outbreak, reports of strained healthcare infrastructure in affected areas, and a surge in panic buying of essential supplies. * Time Horizon: 4 to 8 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The WHO implements containment measures, including quarantine zones and contact tracing protocols. International aid begins arriving, providing medical resources and support staff. Public health officials work diligently to contain the outbreak. * Confirmation Indicators: The DRC govern (16% model probability, not a guarantee)