Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Steel tariffs implemented on key construction materials lead to delays in housing starts and increased material costs. This triggers further trade tensions between the UK and major steel suppliers, potentially resulting in retaliatory measures from other countries. * Confirmation Indicators: Government statements indicating a significant increase in import prices for steel products, followed by announcements of delayed or cancelled housing projects within the construction industry. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK government negotiates with major steel suppliers to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the construction industry, potentially through trade agreements or increased domestic production. The construction industry adapts by exploring alternative material (56% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Steel tariffs implemented on key construction materials lead to delays in housing starts and increased material costs. This triggers further trade tensions between the UK and major steel suppliers, potentially resulting in retaliatory measures from other countries. * Confirmation Indicators: Government statements indicating a significant increase in import prices for steel products, followed by announcements of delayed or cancelled housing projects within the construction industry. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK government negotiates with major steel suppliers to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the construction industry, potentially through trade agreements or increased domestic production. The construction industry adapts by exploring alternative material (32% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Steel tariffs implemented on key construction materials lead to delays in housing starts and increased material costs. This triggers further trade tensions between the UK and major steel suppliers, potentially resulting in retaliatory measures from other countries. * Confirmation Indicators: Government statements indicating a significant increase in import prices for steel products, followed by announcements of delayed or cancelled housing projects within the construction industry. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK government negotiates with major steel suppliers to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the construction industry, potentially through trade agreements or increased domestic production. The construction industry adapts by exploring alternative material (12% model probability, not a guarantee)

Steel tariffs will delay housebuilding, warns UK construction industry

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators