Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Lokudu's lack of compensation for treating Ebola patients sparks nationwide outrage and protests demanding higher pay for healthcare workers in Congo. This fuels a further surge in demand for medical resources, leading to shortages of essential supplies like protective gear and medication. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage focusing on the plight of healthcare workers and public demonstrations demanding government action. * Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating protests lead to nationwide strikes by medical staff, potentially disrupting healthcare services further. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Congo government acknowledges the issue of underpaid healthcare workers and announces a temporary increase in compensation for frontline personnel treating Ebola patients. How (43% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Lokudu's lack of compensation for treating Ebola patients sparks nationwide outrage and protests demanding higher pay for healthcare workers in Congo. This fuels a further surge in demand for medical resources, leading to shortages of essential supplies like protective gear and medication. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage focusing on the plight of healthcare workers and public demonstrations demanding government action. * Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating protests lead to nationwide strikes by medical staff, potentially disrupting healthcare services further. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Congo government acknowledges the issue of underpaid healthcare workers and announces a temporary increase in compensation for frontline personnel treating Ebola patients. How (41% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Lokudu's lack of compensation for treating Ebola patients sparks nationwide outrage and protests demanding higher pay for healthcare workers in Congo. This fuels a further surge in demand for medical resources, leading to shortages of essential supplies like protective gear and medication. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased media coverage focusing on the plight of healthcare workers and public demonstrations demanding government action. * Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating protests lead to nationwide strikes by medical staff, potentially disrupting healthcare services further. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Congo government acknowledges the issue of underpaid healthcare workers and announces a temporary increase in compensation for frontline personnel treating Ebola patients. How (15% model probability, not a guarantee)