Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: WHO's praise for Uganda's response fuels increased pressure on neighboring countries to contain potential outbreaks. This leads to heightened border security measures, including stricter entry protocols and increased surveillance in transit points. The outbreak spreads from Uganda to other regions of East Africa, particularly those with porous borders and weak healthcare infrastructure. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ebola cases in neighbouring countries like Kenya or Tanzania. A surge in media coverage focusing on the potential for an escalating outbreak. * Time horizon: 14-30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The WHO visit serves as a positive step, encouraging continued strong response efforts by Ugandan authorities and international organizations. However, limited res (43% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: WHO's praise for Uganda's response fuels increased pressure on neighboring countries to contain potential outbreaks. This leads to heightened border security measures, including stricter entry protocols and increased surveillance in transit points. The outbreak spreads from Uganda to other regions of East Africa, particularly those with porous borders and weak healthcare infrastructure. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ebola cases in neighbouring countries like Kenya or Tanzania. A surge in media coverage focusing on the potential for an escalating outbreak. * Time horizon: 14-30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The WHO visit serves as a positive step, encouraging continued strong response efforts by Ugandan authorities and international organizations. However, limited res (42% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: WHO's praise for Uganda's response fuels increased pressure on neighboring countries to contain potential outbreaks. This leads to heightened border security measures, including stricter entry protocols and increased surveillance in transit points. The outbreak spreads from Uganda to other regions of East Africa, particularly those with porous borders and weak healthcare infrastructure. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ebola cases in neighbouring countries like Kenya or Tanzania. A surge in media coverage focusing on the potential for an escalating outbreak. * Time horizon: 14-30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The WHO visit serves as a positive step, encouraging continued strong response efforts by Ugandan authorities and international organizations. However, limited res (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Вспышка Эболы: представитель ВОЗ Тедрос посещает Уганду, граничащую с эпицентром провинции Итури в ДРК

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