Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran tensions escalate following statements from US officials regarding potential military action against Iran's nuclear program. This leads to increased geopolitical risk premiums in global markets, causing a surge in volatility and uncertainty. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both the US and Iranian governments regarding military actions, followed by a significant increase in oil prices due to heightened geopolitical tensions. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The current state of global affairs with ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran remains largely unchanged. The focus shifts towards economic indicators and policy changes within individual countries. * Confirmation indicators: Successful completion of a new round of ta (21% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran tensions escalate following statements from US officials regarding potential military action against Iran's nuclear program. This leads to increased geopolitical risk premiums in global markets, causing a surge in volatility and uncertainty. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both the US and Iranian governments regarding military actions, followed by a significant increase in oil prices due to heightened geopolitical tensions. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The current state of global affairs with ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran remains largely unchanged. The focus shifts towards economic indicators and policy changes within individual countries. * Confirmation indicators: Successful completion of a new round of ta (58% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran tensions escalate following statements from US officials regarding potential military action against Iran's nuclear program. This leads to increased geopolitical risk premiums in global markets, causing a surge in volatility and uncertainty. * Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both the US and Iranian governments regarding military actions, followed by a significant increase in oil prices due to heightened geopolitical tensions. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The current state of global affairs with ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran remains largely unchanged. The focus shifts towards economic indicators and policy changes within individual countries. * Confirmation indicators: Successful completion of a new round of ta (21% model probability, not a guarantee)

Мировые фондовые индексы растут на надеждах на сделку США и Ирана | Азиатская торговля 29.05.2026

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