Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Ebola-related travel restrictions trigger increased concern and anxiety among fans traveling to host nations. This leads to disruptions in transportation networks, with flight cancellations and delays becoming more frequent. Governments and public health agencies struggle to contain the spread of misinformation and fear-mongering, potentially escalating tensions between countries and impacting World Cup attendance. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The World Cup proceeds as planned, with minimal impact on travel or public healt (40% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Ebola-related travel restrictions trigger increased concern and anxiety among fans traveling to host nations. This leads to disruptions in transportation networks, with flight cancellations and delays becoming more frequent. Governments and public health agencies struggle to contain the spread of misinformation and fear-mongering, potentially escalating tensions between countries and impacting World Cup attendance. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The World Cup proceeds as planned, with minimal impact on travel or public healt (44% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Ebola-related travel restrictions trigger increased concern and anxiety among fans traveling to host nations. This leads to disruptions in transportation networks, with flight cancellations and delays becoming more frequent. Governments and public health agencies struggle to contain the spread of misinformation and fear-mongering, potentially escalating tensions between countries and impacting World Cup attendance. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: The World Cup proceeds as planned, with minimal impact on travel or public healt (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

How the hosts are preparing for an Ebola outbreak during World Cup 2026

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators