Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

WHO guidelines for Bundibugyo Ebola treatment expand but mistrust persists in affected communities, leading to low adherence rates for preventative measures like isolation and contact tracing. This fuels a rise in new cases, with the outbreak potentially spreading beyond the initial region. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased case numbers in DRC alongside declining compliance with WHO guidelines. Surge in media coverage highlight (43% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

WHO guidelines for Bundibugyo Ebola treatment expand but mistrust persists in affected communities, leading to low adherence rates for preventative measures like isolation and contact tracing. This fuels a rise in new cases, with the outbreak potentially spreading beyond the initial region. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased case numbers in DRC alongside declining compliance with WHO guidelines. Surge in media coverage highlight (42% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

WHO guidelines for Bundibugyo Ebola treatment expand but mistrust persists in affected communities, leading to low adherence rates for preventative measures like isolation and contact tracing. This fuels a rise in new cases, with the outbreak potentially spreading beyond the initial region. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased case numbers in DRC alongside declining compliance with WHO guidelines. Surge in media coverage highlight (16% model probability, not a guarantee)