Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Exporters intensify lobbying efforts, leading to increased public pressure on the government for subsidy reform. This pressure results in a formal review of the interest subvention scheme with a potential expansion of eligible exporters and/or an increase in subsidy levels. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The government maintains the current interest subvention scheme with limited adjustments. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry conducts a detailed analysis of export performance and market trends, while also considering the potential impact on publ (49% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Exporters intensify lobbying efforts, leading to increased public pressure on the government for subsidy reform. This pressure results in a formal review of the interest subvention scheme with a potential expansion of eligible exporters and/or an increase in subsidy levels. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The government maintains the current interest subvention scheme with limited adjustments. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry conducts a detailed analysis of export performance and market trends, while also considering the potential impact on publ (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Exporters intensify lobbying efforts, leading to increased public pressure on the government for subsidy reform. This pressure results in a formal review of the interest subvention scheme with a potential expansion of eligible exporters and/or an increase in subsidy levels. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The government maintains the current interest subvention scheme with limited adjustments. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry conducts a detailed analysis of export performance and market trends, while also considering the potential impact on publ (14% model probability, not a guarantee)