Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: * [Day 3]: Confirmed cases in Goma rise to 10, exceeding the initial case threshold for rapid response. * [Day 7]: Local health authorities declare a state of emergency and request international assistance. * [Day 14]: The UN coordinates an airlift of medical supplies and personnel from neighboring countries, but logistical challenges hinder timely deployment. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The DRC government and WHO continue their current response efforts, focusing on contact tracing and isolation protocols in Goma. However, the outbreak continues to spread, with sporadic cases reported in (45% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: * [Day 3]: Confirmed cases in Goma rise to 10, exceeding the initial case threshold for rapid response. * [Day 7]: Local health authorities declare a state of emergency and request international assistance. * [Day 14]: The UN coordinates an airlift of medical supplies and personnel from neighboring countries, but logistical challenges hinder timely deployment. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The DRC government and WHO continue their current response efforts, focusing on contact tracing and isolation protocols in Goma. However, the outbreak continues to spread, with sporadic cases reported in (40% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: * [Day 3]: Confirmed cases in Goma rise to 10, exceeding the initial case threshold for rapid response. * [Day 7]: Local health authorities declare a state of emergency and request international assistance. * [Day 14]: The UN coordinates an airlift of medical supplies and personnel from neighboring countries, but logistical challenges hinder timely deployment. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The DRC government and WHO continue their current response efforts, focusing on contact tracing and isolation protocols in Goma. However, the outbreak continues to spread, with sporadic cases reported in (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

DR Congo steps up Ebola response as cases rise and EU aid arrives

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators