Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly challenges US-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports, escalating rhetoric with possible military action against US interests in the region. Within a week, Israel conducts airstrikes on Iranian military sites, prompting a retaliatory strike from Iran targeting Israeli assets in the Persian Gulf. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Public statements by IRGC officials challenging sanctions and threatening action. 2) Increased activity of Iranian naval vessels near US-controlled waters. * Time Horizon: Within 7 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States remains in place, with continued diplomatic efforts towards a more permanent solution. However, te (68% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly challenges US-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports, escalating rhetoric with possible military action against US interests in the region. Within a week, Israel conducts airstrikes on Iranian military sites, prompting a retaliatory strike from Iran targeting Israeli assets in the Persian Gulf. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Public statements by IRGC officials challenging sanctions and threatening action. 2) Increased activity of Iranian naval vessels near US-controlled waters. * Time Horizon: Within 7 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States remains in place, with continued diplomatic efforts towards a more permanent solution. However, te (23% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly challenges US-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports, escalating rhetoric with possible military action against US interests in the region. Within a week, Israel conducts airstrikes on Iranian military sites, prompting a retaliatory strike from Iran targeting Israeli assets in the Persian Gulf. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Public statements by IRGC officials challenging sanctions and threatening action. 2) Increased activity of Iranian naval vessels near US-controlled waters. * Time Horizon: Within 7 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States remains in place, with continued diplomatic efforts towards a more permanent solution. However, te (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Иранский режим все еще устоит спустя три месяца после смерти Хаменеи

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