Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: UKMTO restrictions on Iranian ports lead to increased tensions between UK and Iran. This escalation triggers sanctions from other Western nations, including EU member states. These sanctions target Iranian shipping companies and financial institutions. Increased geopolitical risk creates uncertainty in global markets leading to a decline in international trade. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The UKMTO restrictions remain in place for a short period, but no major escalation occurs between the UK and Iran. The situation remains ten (27% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: UKMTO restrictions on Iranian ports lead to increased tensions between UK and Iran. This escalation triggers sanctions from other Western nations, including EU member states. These sanctions target Iranian shipping companies and financial institutions. Increased geopolitical risk creates uncertainty in global markets leading to a decline in international trade. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The UKMTO restrictions remain in place for a short period, but no major escalation occurs between the UK and Iran. The situation remains ten (53% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: UKMTO restrictions on Iranian ports lead to increased tensions between UK and Iran. This escalation triggers sanctions from other Western nations, including EU member states. These sanctions target Iranian shipping companies and financial institutions. Increased geopolitical risk creates uncertainty in global markets leading to a decline in international trade. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The UKMTO restrictions remain in place for a short period, but no major escalation occurs between the UK and Iran. The situation remains ten (20% model probability, not a guarantee)