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geopolitical · geopolitical

Editor’s Note: This is a new occasional series brought to you by War on the Rocks. If you would like to pitch your own version, please refer to the contact information and guidance on our submissions page.Every war, it seems, produces its famous novel, a book that captures not merely the tactics and the terrain but the moral weather of its time. The American Civil War gave us The Red Badge of Courage. World War I gave us All Quiet on the Western Front. World War II offered more competitors, as if the scale of the catastrophe demanded more witnesses; The post Three Short Tales on War Brad Carson Wants You to Read appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

In early March, French President Emmanuel Macron stood at a windswept submarine base on the Breton coast and quietly buried four decades of French nuclear orthodoxy. The arsenal would grow. The numbers would be hidden. And for the first time, nuclear weapons that France built to defend Paris might one day be deployed to protect Berlin.Three simultaneous shifts — an increase of nuclear warheads; an end to transparency over the size of the force de frappe; and the launch of “advanced deterrence,” a framework offering European partners strategic dialogues, invitations to French nuclear exercises, and the potential forward basing of The post Macron’s Nuclear Gamble: Building a European Deterrent Faster Than French Politics Can Tear Down appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

War is a brutal driver of medical innovation. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has forced clinicians and commanders alike to confront a hard truth: Survival depends not only on tactics and technology, but on the ability to deliver advanced care under fire, evacuate and resuscitate the wounded, and preserve fighting strength despite repeated attacks on healthcare systems.Ukraine’s experience has reshaped combat medicine through necessity, resilience, and improvisation. The central question is no longer whether NATO can observe these lessons, but whether it can build a system bold enough to capture, test, scale, and field them at wartime speed. The NATO The post Good Medicine Is Combat Power: Clinical Innovation and the Lessons of the Russo-Ukrainian War appeared first on War on the Rocks .

economic · economic

A mentor of mine, a superb scholar, once told me that good defense analysis starts with a trade-off. The classic example is combined arms doctrine, which is the foundation of modern warfare. Infantry, armor, artillery, and aviation work together to offset each other’s weaknesses. Each brings a combination of mobility, firepower, or protection, though none individually has all three. Infantry has a lot of mobility, but little protection. Tanks have mobility and a lot of protection, but limited magazines. Artillery in the rear has nearly limitless firepower, but no protection. Aviation brings speed, reach, and firepower, but little staying power, The post Cogs of War Turns One appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

In 2024, Emilian Kavalski and Claris Diaz argued in “Beyond TikTok – The National Security Risks of Chinese Agricultural Drones” that the national debate over foreign social media platforms risked becoming too narrow, potentially causing Washington to overlook other foreign technologies embedded in critical systems. Two years later, we asked them to revisit their arguments.Image: MB-one via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2024 article, you argued that TikTok’s data collection risks were overhyped and that fixating on them distracted the United States from more serious Chinese technology threats, like agricultural drones. Two years and several TikTok ban cycles later, has your view The post China’s Farm Drones: A Trojan Horse Washington Overlooks appeared first on War on the Rocks .

social demographic · sports

The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup is now well underway, bringing 48 countries’ teams to compete in a soccer tournament co-hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada. With teams from every continent except Antarctica, the 2026 tournament is a truly global event. The World Cup is often hailed as an opportunity for the world to come together and celebrate a shared passion for “the beautiful game” — creating an opportunity every four years for countries to gain attention, shape their reputation, and build influence.Although the joint U.S.-Mexican-Canadian bid intended to demonstrate North American connections, relations have deteriorated since the The post The World Cup: Players Vie for Goals and Countries for Influence appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

The Trump administration has not been kind to India. Nevertheless, India has responded with far greater equanimity than most observers expected. Predictions that President Donald Trump’s behavior will hurt U.S.-Indian relations have not come to pass, with the leaders of the two countries remaining in frequent and friendly conversation. Instead of retaliating, India has responded calmly, though the Indian government faces considerable domestic criticism. Despite continuing irritation with American behavior, India can be expected to maintain its two-decade course of seeking good relations with the United States.The reason is a simple one that is ignored by critics and analysts: India The post Why India Will Stick with America appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

A single bribe nearly ruined a defense partnership most people didn’t know even existed. It took India and Italy almost a decade to recover.The story of how that rupture happened — and what it exposed about Italy’s quiet but deep role in India’s military — is essential to understanding why both countries now treat their renewed ties as something too valuable to lose again.When Indian authorities cancelled the AgustaWestland helicopter contract in 2014, the fallout went far beyond the headlines. Torpedo supplies to the Indian Navy’s Scorpène-class submarines froze, upgrades to over 20 Sea King helicopters stalled, and a naval The post Too Big To Break Again: India, Italy, and the Defense Partnership That Almost Wasn’t appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues shaping their country.American coverage often narrows the view to the battlefield — these pieces widen it, revealing the texture of daily life, politics, and public argument in a nation at war. The perspectives gathered here are varied, candid, and often surprising, together forming a more complete picture of Ukraine as it really is.Frontline and StrategyЦензор.НЕТ — The post Is There a Place in Ukrainian Media for War Skeptics? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

In the public perception, it seems like a big deal for Germany to publish a military strategy for the first time. But let me pour a little cold water on that. A form of military strategy has always existed. Where today we have a National Security Strategy paired with a military strategy and Plan for the Armed Forces, the past offered the White Paper, Defence Policy Guidelines, and the Bundeswehr concept, which spelled out the armed forces’ structure in more concrete terms. Yet even the new military strategy, released in late April, reads more as analysis than as a clear The post A Claim to Lead, a Hesitation to Act: Germany’s New Military Strategy appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Iran’s threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that began on Feb. 28 — effectively closed the strait, sending economic shockwaves around the world. As part of negotiations between Tehran and Washington, Iran has eased restrictions, and shipping traffic has picked up in recent days — albeit well below pre-war levels.Whatever the outcome of negotiations, Iran has clearly demonstrated its ability to shut down the strait. It could happen again. That reality significantly increases incentives for many countries to reduce their reliance on the strait. We asked five The post Adapting to Uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Wars rarely end in a single act of diplomacy. More often, they pass through a succession of ceasefires, frameworks, understandings, as well as provisional and even secret arrangements before anyone can determine whether peace is actually at hand. The Trump administration’s memorandum with Iran is best understood in those terms. In both form and logic, it recalls an earlier American effort to negotiate an exit from an unpopular conflict: the Paris Peace Accords of 1973.The four primary parties to the Vietnam War (1965 to 1975) — the United States, South Vietnam, North Vietnam, and the Provisional Revolutionary Government of the The post From Vietnam to Iran: Wartime Diplomacy and Secret Deals appeared first on War on the Rocks .

natural disaster · natural disaster

This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Maxwell Maduka, the co-founder and chief engineer of Terra Industries, an African defense technology company building autonomous drone and counter-drone systems designed for the continent’s operating conditions. As cheap imported airframes flood African markets and non-state actors employ drones across the Sahel, we asked Max why Terra is betting on Africa building its own defense industrial base.Cheap Turkish and Chinese drones and sensor systems have proliferated across Africa for years. Where do those systems fall short, and what capabilities do you hope to add to the crowded unmanned market?Imported Turkish and Chinese The post Designing Drones for Africa appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

In 2024, Paul Scharre and Michael Depp wrote, “Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Stability,” where they argued integrating artificial intelligence into the nuclear chain of command presents both opportunities and risks. Two years later, as AI becomes increasingly integrated into military systems and processes, we asked them to revisit their arguments. Image: Senior Airman Jason Wiese via Wikimedia CommonsIn 2024, you argued that integrating artificial intelligence into the nuclear chain of command presents both opportunities and risks. Where does that integration stand today? Is nuclear AI a priority for the Department of Defense, or does it currently take a back seat The post Nuclear Stability in the Age of AI appeared first on War on the Rocks .

economic · economic

On June 25, 1876, Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer and an entire battalion of the 7th Cavalry Regiment rode to their deaths and into American legend on the ridges north of Montana’s Little Bighorn River. The battle was decided in a few hours. Its meaning remains contested 150 years later.Little Bighorn stands alongside Yorktown, Gettysburg, and D-Day in the pantheon of iconic American battles. But it is a curious addition there, in that it was a small engagement, fought by just a few hundred men on a compact piece of terrain. More curiously still, it was a loss. Not just The post The Importance of the Battle of the Little Bighorn appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine is the next generation of American nuclear deterrence. Twelve of these boats will replace the aging Ohio-class fleet, entering service over the 2030s and 2040s, each carrying 16 Trident IIs and driven by a ghost-quiet electric motor that renders them acoustically invisible to any adversary. What makes all of that possible — the propulsion, the stealth, the strike precision — depends almost entirely on rare earths refined in China. This is perhaps the Navy’s most consequential and least discussed vulnerability.The dependency runs through every layer of the capability stack. The sub’s permanent magnet motor requires The post The U.S. Navy’s Subsea Rare Earth Vulnerability appeared first on War on the Rocks .

economic · economic

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranOn June 17, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian separately signed a memorandum of understanding. Mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, the agreement ends hostilities and provides early returns for both sides: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is ticking up, oil prices have been coming down, and Washington has issued a 60-day waiver on Iranian oil and petrochemical sales. But diverging claims on nearly every point the two sides spent weeks litigating The post Open Strait, Unsettled Waters appeared first on War on the Rocks .

social demographic · culture

You can tell a lot about a person from what fiction they keep on their nightstand. Once a year, we make the staff, contributing editors, and show hosts of War on the Rocks tell on themselves.Kerry AndersonThe Midnight Library, Matt Haig (2020). Drawing on evergreen themes from books and movies such as Sliding Doors or It’s a Wonderful Life, The Midnight Library puts a fresh spin on questions like what’s the meaning of life, how does our presence (or absence) in the world affect those around us, what would have happened if we had made different choices, and are there The post The 2026 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

To understand how close Myanmar’s pro-democracy resistance came to victory last year — and how far it has slipped since — there is no sharper microcosm than the story of a Gen Z sniper. In April 2025, a female teenager, Anina, enraptured the world, her youth-driven “Spring Revolution” a vivid foil to the sclerotic forces of military dictator Min Aung Hlaing (officially called the Tatmadaw). When her unit captured the town of Falam, fortune seemed on the resistance’s side. Yet, a year later, regime troops stormed Anina’s hometown, a stunning blow to the resistance.Many observers had predicted the junta’s impending The post Misreading Myanmar’s War: Why the Junta’s Recent Gains Don’t Mean Imminent Victory appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

Nuclear policy debates are at their best when they force hard questions about risk, deterrence, and military necessity. They are at their worst when disagreement is recast as bad faith. In 2018, as an outgrowth of a rigorous policy review process, the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review identified a need for supplemental low-yield nuclear capabilities to augment the U.S. nuclear arsenal. This was presented as an effort to raise the nuclear threshold of adversaries who may believe they could employ nuclear weapons in limited ways to escalate their way out of failed or failing conventional conflict.To address this concern, the The post Not Imaginary: The Deterrence Gap is Real and America Needs Low-Yield Nukes appeared first on War on the Rocks .

social demographic · culture

Jack Watling, Statecraft: The New Rules of Power in a Divided World (Macmillan, 2026)The war against Iran exposed a multitude of forced errors and own goals in the conduct of statecraft. The purpose of sound statecraft is the integrated application of a state’s tools and its repertoire of governmental instruments of power to gain its desired outcomes in international relations. The yet-to-be-resolved contest against the Islamic Republic of Iran reveals a litany of shortfalls in the conduct of U.S. statecraft.It is unlikely that the present U.S. government will conduct a candid assessment of its shortcomings. Acknowledging the failure to achieve The post The Art of Statecraft in an Age of Strategic Failure appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

During the Cold War, Europe kept asking whether Washington would risk an American city to save a European one. It was an impolite question, but a useful one, which is why it never quite left the room. It has now packed its bags and moved east. Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron created quite a stir with an important speech on French nuclear weapons policy. Under what he called a new path of dissuasion avancée, or “forward deterrence,” he declared that just as French strategic submarines “dilute naturally in the oceans, guaranteeing a permanent-strike capability,” so also now will The post A New Force Posture Concept for Europeanizing Extended Nuclear Deterrence appeared first on War on the Rocks .

economic · economic

As the relationship between the United States and Canada continues to degrade, it now comes at the expense of each country’s industrial security.Last month, the Pentagon announced the unilateral suspension of the 86-year-old Canadian Permanent Joint Board on Defense in response to what the White House sees as Ottawa’s failure to present a credible plan to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035. And the opening of the gleaming new bridge between Detroit and Windsor has been long delayed in the tense run-up to the continental trade deal review.What many policymakers in Washington fail to realize is that The post The Defense Industrial Alliance Washington Is Throwing Away appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues shaping their country.American coverage often narrows the view to the battlefield — these pieces widen it, revealing the texture of daily life, politics, and public argument in a nation at war. The perspectives gathered here are varied, candid, and often surprising, together forming a more complete picture of Ukraine as it really is.Frontline and StrategyОбозреватель — The post The Ukrainian Push for Long-Term Strategic Planning appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

On May 13, 2026, Air Force One landed in Beijing for President Donald Trump’s first state visit to China in nearly a decade. That same morning, the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations published a report titled The Evolving World and the Right Way to China-US Coexistence. The summit dominated global media coverage for two days. The report received almost none.The Beijing summit produced familiar imagery: honor guards, a state banquet in the Great Hall of the People, and carefully choreographed warmth. Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced that both sides had agreed to “strategic stability” as a framework for the The post Lost in Translation: How A Premier Chinese Think Tank Views U.S.-Chinese Competition appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

The extent of China’s drone dominance — and how to decouple from it — has long been a source of debate and anxiety in Washington. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reignited controversy by publishing a visual analysis of military quadcopter components, exploring China’s advantages in parts manufacturing and cost. The director of the Defense Innovation Unit objected to the report, stating on X that “By leaving out the dozens of U.S. companies that have plunged into drone component manufacturing, this article disappoints.”Underlying this debate is disagreement about how to measure drone supply chain security. At the very top of The post At a Glance: American Quadcopter Component Manufacturing appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

The Kurds’ fortunes have ebbed and flowed in recent years, but the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, the 2025 decision by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to dissolve and engage in talks with the Turkish government, and the 2026 U.S.-Israeli war with Iran had enormous ripple effects on the lives of Kurds in the Middle East and Kurdish hopes for autonomy. We asked four experts to assess how recent regional events are presenting risks and opportunities for the Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran.Read more below. Gönül TolSenior Fellow at the Middle East InstituteThe Iran The post The Shifting Fortunes of the Kurds appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

The amphibious invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944, remains the largest and most complex amphibious operation in history. On the first day alone, Allied forces landed eight divisions, including five amphibious assault and three airborne, totaling roughly 160,000 personnel. That force more than doubled within days.Normandy was unprecedented in scale but not in kind. A Taiwan invasion would present the reverse problem: Taiwan’s size is not the unprecedented part — the operational challenges are. Analysis of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan typically emphasizes the People’s Liberation Army’s rapid modernization and the possibility of strategic surprise. Far less attention The post The Three Nevers: To Invade Taiwan, China Would Have to Make Military History Thrice appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

What can leaders do about a transnational organization that is a militia, a political party, a social services network, and a smuggling operation at the same time — and one that has resisted various dialogues and survived repeated attacks?American, Lebanese, and other leaders should recognize Hizballah’s hybrid, transnational nature and grapple with the unique challenges the organization creates. Otherwise, they will fail to resolve the Hizballah predicament while creating conditions for ineffective agreements, new wars, and squandered opportunities in the Levant.Meeting openly for the first time in decades, Lebanese and Israeli representatives have negotiated on security and political tracks while The post The Hizballah Predicament: Why An Integrated Approach Is Necessary appeared first on War on the Rocks .

social demographic · culture

In 1990, the idea that deployed commanders could access the latest intelligence from three-letter agencies in the middle of nowhere was radical. But the Army was starting to make this idea real through a program called Trojan Spirit, so they could address a major strategic barrier: There were too many systems and databases for intelligence collection and analysis, some centralized and some forward deployed, and little access to practical insights. During Operation Desert Storm, the early Trojan system transitioned out of development and into operational deployment. Trojan Spirit’s first introduction to warfighters during the Gulf War fundamentally changed the battlefield. The post Trojan Spirit, the Army’s Intelligence Backbone, Needs a Successor appeared first on War on the Rocks .