S6/10Geopolitical
Transnistria extends yellow terrorist danger code for another two months
The yellow level has been in effect for fourth years after a series of terrorist attacks in 2022
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 38% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days